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What can we expect from the economic policy of the new federal authorities?

Most of the characters are skilled PT members on the Farm; the investor’s response shall be impartial

November 5
2022
– 4:10 am

(up to date at 1:38 pm)

What can we expect from the economic policy of the new federal authorities? In our view, there are three issues to contemplate. The very first thing is to undertake an economic policy, whereas the nervousness and contraction are nonetheless there. inequality shall be given povertybe accountable from a tax perspective.

This state of affairs requires the safety of a robust monetary anchor, even when the regulation of the ceiling of spending is modified, additional spending will increase shall be prevented – apart from these which were ready, equivalent to sustaining the worth of the Brazil has assist and a few will increase in the salaries of civil servants, a measure that requires a ceiling improve, everlasting and never momentary, of about R$100 billion.

The downside is that the fiscal anchor just isn’t sturdy sufficient to stop different objects of elevated spending and lowered earnings, which have been introduced throughout the PT program, from being eliminated. The thought to permit the “Transition PEC” to create a gap in the ceiling with out defining the worth, mentioned this week, could be very harmful.




Aerial view of Esplanada dos Ministérios, in Brasília.

Photo: Marcello Casal Jr./Agência Brasil / Estadão

The ministerial appointment of Farm and old school, like a former minister Henrique Meirelles, that is wonderful. It sends an necessary message to the traders and generates a constructive response in the starting of the authorities. Although potential, our evaluation is that the chance of this situation could be very low. The PT is not going to quit the central place of the Esplanada dos Ministérios and shall be the defender of the new authorities.

The second and most certainly is to nominate a PT member who has expertise in public administration to the Ministry of Finance, a former governor of the Eastern Region, for instance.

Although the first posts are usually not superb (it’s rising low value, further earnings of R$ 150 per baby in Auxílio Brasil, and so forth.), the definition of the economic policy will solely be clear in time. The response of the traders shall be unsure, like wait and see, if the selections made at the starting of the session will clearly present the path that shall be adopted. The proposed modification to the Act to pierce the ceiling with none worth added in that path.

A 3rd chance is to call for the Ministry of Economy economists with “developmentalist” {qualifications}, equivalent to those that held workplace in the authorities of Dilma Rousseff, characterize a return to the previous in economic insurance policies. The response of the businessmen was very damaging.

*Article written by professors in cost of the economics division at PUC-RIO, CEO of ‘Genial Investimentos’

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