In the worst case situation, the fund can drop to R$20 – Money Times

In this report, the most necessary assumptions are the Petrobras increasing its operations to
vitality switch (Image: Bloomberg)

O Bradesco BBI set a pessimistic situation for the Petrobras (PETR3;PETR4) and doable adjustments in the political cycle in Brazil.

“Given the uncertainties of the political change in Brazil, we’re introducing a brand new ‘3.0’ scenario of extra critical prices after consulting with the consultants of the vitality sector from a few of the opposition teams that conducting presidential elections,” he stated.

In this report, the most necessary assumptions are the Petrobras increasing its operations to
change vitality and perhaps strive to purchase it once more shaking (VBBR3).

“Regarding the energy change, considered one of the first concepts we heard was a merger between Petrobras and electronics (ELET3), was privatized, and Petrobras invested in offshore wind farms”, he stated.

Analysts take into account the sale of all ON shares in ELET for $34 billion, in accordance with the poison invoice legal guidelines (safety measures for minority shareholders of publicly traded firms to strive to purchase one other investor), and investments in offshore wind farms for $15 billion.

In this manner, its web debt will probably be nearer to $70 billion at the finish of 4 years (web debt/EBITDA from 0.7x to 1.4x) from $42 billion.

“Therefore, the actions of Petrobras they want to drop to BRL 20/share for the firm’s EV to stay; about US $ 150 billion, as in the final 8 years”, he stated.

Bradesco estimates that fifty% of this situation will happen.

What if there isn’t any distinction?

Analysts have a look at an organization’s money circulate Petrobras in the subsequent interval of the Brazilian authorities (2023-26) is susceptible to actions that aren’t very efficient.

“Under the “establishment” assumptions and the extra optimistic “2.0” assumptions, we consider the firm’s downsizing will proceed even when gasoline costs are under equilibrium and restart some refinement tasks”, he added.

This situation has a 50% probability, in accordance to investigators.

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