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Corinthians vs Flamengo: Analysis reveals who is the favorite and which game could decide the game | statistical spy

Corinthians and Flamengo will face one another this Tuesday, at 21:30, in the first leg of the Copa Libertadores quarter-finals, in a game with nice potential to be determined in the air: not counting penalties and direct fouls, since the final one. Of the ten objectives scored by Corinthians, six got here from excessive balls, and Flamengo thus obtained seven of the final ten objectives. On the different hand, Flamengo scored eight of the final ten objectives, and Corinthians scored half of the final ten objectives this manner. It has nice potential to decide video games in the air.

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In collaboration with the economist Bruno Imaizumi, we analyzed 88,629 pictures recorded by Espião Statístico in 3,619 matches of the Brasileirões since the 2013 version, based mostly on an internationally established measurement as a parameter to measure the groups’ present productiveness. see the methodology at the finish of the textual content).

Based on this measure, whilst guests, Flamengo is the favorite to win the match, with a chance of 44% to take the three factors, 28% in favor of Corinthians and 28% to get a draw. Flamengo has the most correct assault in the Libertadores, scoring a purpose from 4.6 possessions and averaging 13.3 possessions per game. 106 pictures and 23 objectives had been scored. Flamengo’s attacking strain resulted in a median of three.6 corners per game.

— Photo: Statistical Spy

Even contemplating solely the 4 away video games in the competitors, Flamengo took 37 pictures and scored 8 objectives, one in 4.6 makes an attempt.

In the Libertadores, Corinthians have the seventh most resistant protection in opposition to pictures, conceding a median of 1 purpose per 17.0 opposition outcomes and solely 10.6 pictures per game. No different Brazilian protection was so immune to strain on this yr’s version of the Libertadores.

Of the opponents Flamengo confronted (Sporting Cristal, Universidad Católica, Talleres and Tolima), solely Sporting Cristal had extra defensive resilience than Corinthians, conceding a purpose in each 23.7 instances in opposition to, and Flamengo received each of Flamengo’s matches by scoring two objectives in every match. .

And this is the place Flamengo’s weak spot seems, the crew with the third least resistance to pictures in the Libertadores, with a purpose scored each 3.5 possessions and a median of 10.0 pictures per game.

However, it is going to be a problem for the Corinthians. With the best assault in the Brasileirão with a purpose per try of 8.3, they’ve solely the sixth lowest offensive effectivity in the Libertadores of the 32 groups that began the competitors: Corinthians wanted a median of 15.8 pictures. every purpose averaged 9.0 makes an attempt per game. If Flamengo acquired 3.6 corners per game, Corinthians had a median of three.0.

See beneath how each groups have carried out over the final 60 days and how they evaluate to the 20 groups competing in the Brazilian Serie A. Corinthians have did not concede a purpose in seven of their eight house video games this two months, whereas Flamengo have solely conceded in three of their eight away video games.

— Photo: Statistical Spy

The odds current every crew’s house or away potential by evaluating their efficiency over the final 60 days in all competitions and the final six video games, no matter house. Also taken under consideration are the crew’s defensive and offensive performs in the air and floor video games. Calculations referring to the affect of excessive balls and the change of low passes between objectives scored and objectives conceded solely bear in mind the traits of objectives scored in performs. Olympic objectives, penalty kicks and direct free kicks don’t depend for air or floor impression as they’re pictures taken straight at the purpose.

We current statistical chances based mostly on the parameters of the “Goals Expectation” (xG) mannequin, a metric consolidated in information evaluation, with 88,629 pictures recorded by Espião Statístico in 3,619 matches in Brazil as a reference. 2013 version. We bear in mind the distance and angle of the shot, in addition to traits associated to the origin of the play (equivalent to whether or not it got here from a cross, free kick or steal), the a part of the physique used, when the shot was taken first, the distinction in crew market worth every season, enjoying time and rating distinction at the time of every shot.

A participant’s efficiency is in comparison with the common for his or her place, be it ahead, midfielder, midfielder, defender or defender, and we think about what can be anticipated of the shot if taken with the “good foot” (proper foot). -handers, left-handers) and “unhealthy foot” (reverse). Ambidextrous, who kick roughly the identical quantity with every foot, had been recognized.

Out of 100 pictures from the half-moon, for instance, solely seven change into objectives. So a half moon shot has an anticipated purpose (xG) of about 0.07. Each place on the pitch has a special probability of turning a shot right into a purpose, and if it is a counter-attack, it will increase, as a result of there are fewer opponents to stop the play from ending. Each rating is added up all through the game to reach at a crew’s xG complete for every game.

The mannequin utilized in the evaluation follows the statistical distribution known as Bivariate Poisson, and calculates the chances of occasions (on this case, the objectives of every crew) occurring in a sure time period (the game). In order to reach at predictions about the possibilities of every crew ending the event in every place, the Monte Carlo methodology was used, which is principally based mostly on simulations to generate the outcomes. For each game that hasn’t been performed but, we run tens of 1000’s of simulations.

*Statistics The spy crew consists of: Guilherme Maniaudet, Guilherme Marçal, João Guerra, Leandro Silva, Leonardo Martins, Roberto Maleson and Valmir Storti.

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